This week you’ll be expecting me to give you a few winners for Cartmel Races over the weekend. I hate to disappoint you, but I’m going to give you some of my normal selections instead and hope for the best. Anyone who has been reading this blog for a while will know to treat the information with caution!
first thing to do, if you’re studying form and are pushed for time, is to check
through the list of trainers with runners. For example, Nigel Twiston-Davies
has a strike rate of 24% at Cartmel over the last four years – a great thing to
drop into the conversation over the weekend if you want to sound knowledgeable
in front of your friends. If he has four runners on the card, there’s a
reasonable chance of one winner.
same goes for Donald McCain, who has a 27% strike rate. The problem is (there’s
always a snag) if you’d placed £1 on all their horses in the last four years at
Cartmel, you’d have backed lots of winners but lost £7.87 in the process.
Better instead to back all of Dianne Sayer’s runners. Dianne has a strike rate
of one winner in five runners at Cartmel and they’re good prices too - £1 on
all of her runners would have yielded a profit of £14.25. Possible runners over
the weekend include Auberge and Red Kingdom, both of who are previous course
King of Cartmel though, in percentage terms, is Jonjo O’Neil. He may have only
sent six runners here in the last four years, but three of them have been
winners and he’s showing a profit of £9 to a £1 stake. Temple Lord is entered
on Bank Holiday Monday and could even have the assistance of Champion Jockey
Tony McCoy in the saddle. He’d be my nap of the meeting.
well worth looking at some of the trainers who make infrequent visits to the
track. For example, Philip Hobbs may have his first runner since 2009 with
Triggerman, who finished third in last season’s Welsh Grand National. He is one
horse among a high quality field entered for the Burlington Stone Grand
Veterans Chase, but he would be a very popular winner.
Ferguson hasn’t brought a runner to Cartmel in four years and has decided to
enter two lovely novice hurdlers, one on Saturday evening and one on Monday.
While Halifax will be interesting to note in the betting market, I like Allowed
who finished third to Irish Saint at Kempton’s big Christmas meeting and
therefore has form comparable with the very best juvenile hurdlers of last
course I wouldn’t blame you for ignoring my advice and simply backing the
horses with the most appropriate names. How about Jive Master on the North West
Evening Mail Vintage Race-night?